SVE NEWS & FRANCE24.COM Sharing Series — Why Gaza’s future remains unclear despite the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement

Despite the announcement that Israel and Hamas had reached a ceasefire and hostage-for-prisoner exchange agreement on Wednesday, the question of who is going to govern Gaza after the war’s end remains unresolved. Both Israel and the US, alongside the Palestinian Authority, reject any future governance involving Hamas, which, despite being weakened, has not been eradicated by Israeli military operations.

People check the rubble of buildings hit in Israeli strikes the previous night in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip, on January 16, 2025, following a truce announcement.People check the rubble of buildings hit in Israeli strikes the previous night in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip, on January 16, 2025, following a truce announcement amid the war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. © Omar Al-Qatta, AFP

While negotiators in Doha appeared on Wednesday night to have agreed on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange, the issue of Gaza’s post-conflict governance remains unaddressed by the three-phase plan. The question’s absence from the deal, which still has to be approved by Israel’s cabinet, risks feeding new tensions despite the tentative truce that looks likely to take effect on Sunday.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who vowed to destroy Hamas in response to the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, continues to reject any prospect of Hamas returning to power in Gaza.

After winning the 2006 legislative elections, Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007, ousting the Palestinian Authority led by Fatah and President Mahmoud Abbas.

Since the war began, Netanyahu’s far-right government has shown divisions on Gaza’s post-war governance. Radical ministers including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have even suggested the return of a “Jewish civilian presence” in Gaza.

In January 2024, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, later dismissed over policy disagreements with Netanyahu, proposed a plan for the Israeli military to retain operational rights in Gaza, similar to the way it does in the occupied West Bank.

“Hamas will not govern Gaza, and Israel will not govern Gaza’s civilians. Gaza’s residents are Palestinian, so Palestinian bodies will oversee governance,” Gallant said in a statement.

“The entity controlling Gaza will rely on existing administrative mechanisms [civil committees],” he added. This plan de facto excludes the Palestinian Authority, even though the US has repeatedly advocated for the organisation to play a role in Gaza’s future.

Options for Gaza’s governance, including military rule or foreign oversight of humanitarian aid distribution, remain highly divisive within Israel’s cabinet. Netanyahu, firmly against a complete troop withdrawal from Gaza, has avoided making a decision, leaving his intentions unclear.

Israeli media reported Netanyahu mocking the idea of replacing Hamas with an interim Arab coalition. Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with EgyptJordan and the Palestinian Authority, had reportedly endorsed this idea, but Netanyahu said such a thing would not happen “before total victory and the eradication” of Hamas was achieved.

Read moreLive: Hamas denies Israeli claim it is backtracking on Gaza ceasefire deal

Trump vows Gaza will not become a ‘terrorist safe haven’

The US administration has repeatedly demanded a Gaza “never again governed by Hamas or used as a platform for terrorism” and has done so ever since November 2023.

The Palestinian Islamist movement is considered a terrorist organisation by the United States and the European Union.

Outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated on Tuesday that it was essential to achieving “a lasting peace”.

“For many months, we’ve been working intensively with our partners to develop a detailed post-conflict plan that would allow Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza, prevent Hamas from filling back in, and provide for Gaza’s governance, security, and reconstruction,” he said before the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC.

He noted the plan would be handed off to the incoming Trump administration so they could “carry (it) forward”.

Shortly after the Doha agreement, President-elect Donald Trump vowed “to work closely with Israel and our Allies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven”.

His future administration has not revealed its intentions regarding governance in Gaza, or its views on the Biden plan.

Watch moreIsrael-Hamas deal ‘a spoilers’ dream’ as factions will seek to undermine it, expert says

‘A fully reformed Palestinian Authority’

The plan, which aims to eventually replace Hamas with the Palestinian Authority, includes, according to Blinken, “the unification of Gaza and the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority; no Israeli military occupation of Gaza or reduction of Gaza’s territory [Editor’s note: no Israeli settlements]; no post-conflict attempt to besiege or block it; and no forced displacement of Gaza’s population”.

“The Palestinian Authority should invite international partners to help establish and run an interim administration with responsibility for key civil sectors in Gaza,” Blinken said on Tuesday. “The international community would provide funding, technical support and oversight.”

Blinken added that an interim administration would include “Gaza Palestinians and Palestinian Authority representatives, selected after genuine consultation with Gaza residents.” The interim administration would transfer power “to a fully reformed Palestinian Authority administration as soon as it’s feasible”.

Several Arab and Western nations, including France and the US, have urged Abbas to reform the Palestinian Authority, weakened by corruption and unpopularity. Abbas, whose presidential term expired in 2009 and who’s still clinging onto power at the age of 89, has yet to initiate significant reforms.

‘We are the government of Palestine’

Holding limited authority in the occupied West Bank, a territory beset by an increase in Israeli military operations and growing pressure from settlers, the Palestinian Authority rejects any return to a Hamas-led Gaza.

During a meeting in Oslo on Wednesday, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa said that “it will not be acceptable for any entity other than the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza”.

“We are the government of Palestine, ready to assume our responsibilities in the Gaza Strip as we did before,” he added.

The Palestinian Authority, which advocates for “a political solution for all of Palestine”, seeks to revive efforts toward an independent state. However, this vision is firmly opposed by Netanyahu and his government allies.

Read moreWhat we know about the Gaza truce between Israel and Hamas

Hamas, an unavoidable force?

Just who exactly will run Gaza when the war ends, and how, remains an open question. According to Haaretz, the most optimistic scenario involves lasting calm in Gaza and Gulf-funded reconstruction in exchange for Hamas relinquishing power.

Regardless of the scenario, everything will depend on Israel’s willingness to make compromises, Trump’s regional plans as he aims “to further expand the historic Abraham Accords”, and the Palestinian actors themselves – including the Palestinian Authority, which has lost legitimacy, and Hamas, which is far from being eliminated in Gaza.

Earlier in January, the Israeli press reported that Hamas continued to demand a role in Gaza’s governance post-war as a precondition for any agreement on releasing Israeli hostages.

Despite devastating Israeli bombardment and the targeted assassinations of its leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas remains the dominant force in Gaza. It led negotiations in Doha and is still the key Israeli interlocutor for implementing the three-phase deal signed Wednesday.

According to Blinken, Hamas has nearly restored its forces lost since October 2023.

“We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost,” Blinken said on Tuesday. “That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

Pending the establishment of an administrative authority capable of governing Gaza in the coming months, the Israeli military is expected to gradually withdraw from densely populated areas, as well as the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border and the Netzarim corridor that divides the Palestinian territory within the next 60 days to facilitate the return of displaced people.

Full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is slated for the second phase of the plan announced on Wednesday. Reconstruction and governance issues are likely to be addressed in a potential third phase.

This article has been adapted from the original in French by Anaëlle Jonah.

Sources from: FRANCE24.COM 

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